Gold Price Momentum Remains Momentarily Up, But Must be Confirmed

STRONG day for the SILVER PRICE, not so strong for everything else.

Although both SILVER and GOLD PRICES rose today, they didn't exactly agree. The GOLD PRICE rose a modest $3.40 to close Comex at $1,526.60. Yes, yes, higher than yesterday but not clear of that $1,525 resistance area. Tried once to clear it and stopped at $1,532. Today's work doesn't precisely disqualify gold from advancing tomorrow -- after all, it might reasonably have trouble with that $1,525 resistance for a day or so. However, on a longer term chart it has that double-toppy look with that last peak at $1,526.20 (intraday).

A Bottom in the Gold Price Lies not too Far Distant, but not yet, not yet.

For all its weaseling and waffling, the US DOLLAR INDEX has been skating along above its 50 day moving average, and that's fundamentally positive. Today it dropped off 32.9 basis points (0.42%) to test the limits of support at 75.10. Breaking below 75. will crush morale and send the buck hurtling toward 72.50.

By falling this far the dollar has clouded its own future, and will have to conquer 76 to seduce followers.

Bullish on commodities for long term: Mark Mobius

In an interview with ET Now, Mark Mobius , Executive Director, Templeton Emerging Markets Group, talks about emerging markets, commodities and inflation. Excerpts:

Emerging markets have underperformed developed markets for the current year. What do you think is the way forward for the emerging markets?

I have no clue. I cannot give you any predictions at all. I believe it will be positive. Economic growth in these countries is doing very well and there is no reason why the stock market should not reflect this positive movement. So, we are expecting positive returns, but I cannot give you a number in view of the fact that the markets have done so well up to now in 2010 and the middle of 2009.

Gold Price hasn't Posted its Bottom Yet :

Well, Candide, it was the best of all possible worlds today. Everything went up.

Dollar index was knocked off its 75.40 limb, fell as 75.13, but clawed its tomcat way clean up to 75.425, a gigantical 2.6 basis points above yesterady. That may end the dollar's woes for a few days. However, should the dollaar fall below todays 75.13 low, it will disappoint its fans and sink like your car keys out of your shirt pocket when you lean over the gunwale of the bassboat.

Prepare to Load up on Silver and Gold

TODAY'S MARKETS

GOLD did little to encourage its partisans today. Support had been coalescing around $1,488 - $1,490 but when New York opened this morning even the cockroaches in the woodwork were selling. A waterfalling price poured down until it hit the pool at $1,475.80 about 11:30. Then began a modest and restrained bounce that splashed on $1,485. Final score on Comex was down $10.60 to $1,479.80, but trading now at $1,482.30.

I'll be Surprised if Silver and Gold Prices Don't Make Another Big Drop

My similes and metaphors may ofttimes want some explanation. When I say that trying to buy in a correction is like trying to catch a falling knife, think about it: you might catch the handle, but you also might catch the blade or point. Better to pick it up after it hits the floor. Yet if you wait too long, you might miss it altogether -- the falling knife dilemma.

Some of y'all misunderstood my comments about the gold/silver ratio target for swapping back into silver from gold. I used 47.5 as an example, but I am expecting and hoping the ratio will surpass that mark. Ultimately, 58 may not be reasonable, but I am still pondering while the market unfolds.

Gold & Silver: Is it the right time to buy?

There has been heightened investor interest in select commodities such as gold and silver over the past few months. But the recent sell-off, especially in commodities after a long bull-run that started in 2002 has dampened investor interest to a certain extent. ET sought the views of experts to provide a global as well as local perspective on investing in gold and silver. Excerpts:

Four experts:

Jonathan Barrat , Managing Director, Commodity Broking, Australia

Jayant Manglik , President, Religare Commodities, India

James Moore , Commodity Analyst, The Bullion Desk, UK

Lakshmi Iyer , Head ( Fixed Income & Product )), Kotak Mahindra Asset Management, India